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edit Kemrese Election: first predictions for 2006

In June of this year Cambria will celebrate the 600th anniversary of the calling of the first Senate by Prince Ewein in 1406. The Kemrese will celebrate this anniversary in time-honoured tradition -- by going to the polls. An election date for the 10th or 17th of June is expected will be announced later this year, to coincide with this anniversary.
Despite being only the second week in the new year already the first opinion polls have come through. The findings were collected over the New Year period and cover a poll of 500 participants taken from a survey by telephone. This survey does not include the autonomous provices, Dunein and Mon.

The results follow a trend that was evident in 2005. The flamboyant leader of the Liberal Party, Gion Boibont, is preferred Toisag over his nearest rival, Rhigardd 'Dic' Gion Dewidd of the Conservative Party. Despite his unorthodox public behaviour Boibont has the confidence of the electorate. His critics say his ministry has yet to engage with the issues affecting Kemrese society. He has the advantage that his government supported the Gulf War without Kemrese and Federal personnel being mired in the reconstruction of Florida. Neither has Boibont been hit by a scandal as major as what is breaking out in Philadelphia. Moreover he has a new face in the Royal Court reversing the difference of generations that existence between himself and King Gereint. It awaits to be seen if this is sufficient to carry Boibont and his ministry into a third term.

Dewidd has a secure leadership of his party. Unless the Liberal vote collapses this time he is unlikely to form a new ministry. The federo-sceptics among his right-wing partners do not favour his anglophilia which has seen the Kemrese Conservatives courting their fellow-travellers in London and Edinburgh.

Initial results look less positive for the centrist Liberals in the Senate. Key seats look as if they favour a swing to the Liberals' junior partner, the Labour Party, to their left. Traditionally one of the three major parties, Labour looks ready to flex new-found muscle in 2006. Yet the Conservatives see it as the weaker party in the coalition. At this stage it looks like they plan to contest Labour's more marginal seats.

Among the minor parties, it is the smallest, the Ecotopic Party looks to be the most vulnerable. Only in one of its four current seats does it hold a majority. The Ecotopians have never been a major party by Kemrese standards. Instead they have shown themselves to be the conscience of the Senate. 2006 will show whether they can still ride with the 'big boys'.[AS]

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